ARIMA Forecasting Chinese Macroeconomic Variables Based on Factor and Principal Component Backdating


 Backdating, Factor model, Principal components, ARIMA forecasting, GDP of China.

How to Cite

Wei Wang, & Yan Liu. (2017). ARIMA Forecasting Chinese Macroeconomic Variables Based on Factor and Principal Component Backdating. Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences, 13, 91–99.


In this paper the backdating methods based on factors and principal components are applied for the first time to emulate the historical macroeconomic variables in China. The numerical results show that these procedures are useful to backdate some missing or not available historical data. ARIMA forecasting experiments based on backdated historical data are conducted and compared with forecasting procedures using directly factors and principal components. Our results suggest that some key variables like GDP can indeed be forecasted more precisely with the principal components backdated data.


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Copyright (c) 2017 Wei Wang , Yan Liu