Keywords
Volcano
IPCC models
Satellite temperatures
Stratosphere
How to Cite
Abstract
In January 2020, we published a paper [1] showing that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed that Earth’s temperature would reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial days by 2030. At the same time, those who study the Sun, such as Valentina Zharkov, indicated that by 2030, the Earth's temperature would be much lower and close to pre-industrial times. The satellite temperature measurements of the Earth’s temperature are the best because they cover the whole Earth and minimize the urban heat island effect. This record shows that from January 2019 to January 2023, the temperatures dropped by approximately 0.5 °C, which indicates that the Earth is cooling. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano violently erupted, sending approximately 146 million tonnes of water into the stratosphere. This water reduced the heat flow to space. It increased the Earth’s temperature to a peak in April 2024 of approximately 0.45 °C above the safe upper limit of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as promoted by the IPCC. There was no disastrous effect. We are halfway to 2030, and there are serious problems with the IPCC estimate. It is recommended that the IPCC consider revising its estimates of the impact of CO2 on warming the Earth’s atmosphere.
References
[1] Lightfoot HD, Ratzer G. The Sun Versus CO2 as the Cause of Climate Change Projected to 2050. Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences 2022; 18: 16-25.
[2] Latest global temperatures as measured by satellite. UAH is the University of Alabama at Huntsville. The record of satellite measurements is available at: Lower Troposphere: https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_ 1979_thru_July_2025_v6.1_20x9-scaled.jpg
[3] Lightfoot HD, Ratzer G. The Sun and the Troposphere control the Earth’s temperature. Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences 2023; 19: 163-173
[4] Figure 1 is from the NOAA Research website: https://research.noaa.gov/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/
[5] Earth’s CO2 homepage. Available at: https://www.co2.earth/
[6] NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory. Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Eruption Research. Available at: https://csl.noaa.gov/news/topics/hthh.html
[7] AGU Advancing Earth and Space Science, JGR Atmospheres. Evolution of the Climate Forcing During the Two Years After the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption. First published: 24 July 2024.
[8] Climate etc., Vinós J. Hunga Tonga volcano: impact on record warming, Posted on July 5, 2024 by curryja. Available at: https://judithcurry.com/2024/07/05/hunga-tonga-volcano-impact-on-record-warming/
[9] Science. 12 May 2022. Atmospheric waves and global seismo-acoustic observations of the January 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/ science.abo7063
[10] AGU. 4 November 2024.https://news.agu.org/press-release/new-trigger-tonga-eruption/
[11] Science Advances. 28 June 2023. Mesospheric pressure source from the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption excites 3.6-mHz air-sea coupled waves. https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/ 10.1126/sciadv.adg8036
[12] Science. 7 September 2023. Fast and destructive density currents created by ocean-entering volcanic eruptions. https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.adi3038
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